Fantasy Premier League tips: Best budget midfielders

We have had a plethora of budget options this season in Fantasy Premier League, particularly in midfield.

Many low-priced midfielders are performing well enough to be starters in our FPL teams; after 13 gameweeks, three players under £6m rank in the position’s top 10 for total points.

So if you’re operating on a budget, here are the best midfielders to own for the upcoming games, based on fixtures, expected minutes and underlying stats.

Anthony Gordon (£5.9m)

Gordon has five goals and five assists for Newcastle United with a non-pen xG (non-penalty expected goals) of 3.47 and an xA (expected assists) of 1.58. He has been fantastic and looks to be secure for minutes due to his performance — and also the fact that Harvey Barnes (£6.2m), who is competition for his spot in the team, is expected to be out until late December.

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This should mean Gordon gets plenty of minutes during the seven gameweeks this month.

December FPL schedule

Newcastle have a pretty good run of fixtures, playing Manchester United (H), Everton (A), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Fulham (H), Luton Town (A) and Nottingham Forest (H), and having scored the joint second-most goals (31) and posting the second-best non-penalty xG (23.4) number, they are one of the best attacks in the Premier League.

However, it is worth noting Newcastle have one of the busiest schedules during December. On top of those seven league games, they have an important Champions League group finale at home against AC Milan sandwiched between Gameweeks 16 and 17 — and an away Carabao Cup quarter-final against Chelsea between Gameweeks 17 and 18.

Hwang Hee-chan (£5.6m)

The South Korean has been in fine form for Wolverhampton Wanderers, with seven goals and two assists. He has registered a non-penalty xG of 2.80 and an xA of 1.79. Hwang has shot up the rankings among budget midfielders since the last gameweek due to him possibly now being Wolves’ first-choice on penalties — he scored from the spot against Fulham in Gameweek 13, so we have to think there is a chance he is their designated taker now.

Not only has Hwang been putting up very impressive underlying numbers, but his side have a decent set of upcoming games. After they go to Arsenal in Gameweek 14, they play Burnley (H), Forest (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H), Brentford (A) and Everton (H) over the rest of December. Gary O’Neil’s team also have one of the least packed schedules, as they are no longer in the Carabao Cup.

Hwang has now started the last nine games, playing 90 minutes in the last five. Before this, he was averaging 51 minutes per game. He has undoubtedly cemented himself as a first-team player.

Douglas Luiz (£5.6m)

Luiz has five goals and two assists, a non-pen xG of 0.85, an xA of 1.42 and has started all 13 of Aston Villa’s league games.

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Of the midfielders in this article, he is by far the one with the least goal threat from open play; three of those five goals have been penalties. He has massively over-performed so far. However, Luiz is likely to play the most minutes from the Villa midfield and also has the advantage of being on all their set pieces, including corners and free kicks.

GO DEEPER

Douglas Luiz, from one foot out the door to Aston Villa's heartbeat

Villa have returnable fixtures from an attacking sense during December, playing Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (H), Arsenal (H), Brentford (A), Sheffield United (H), Manchester United (A) and Burnley (H).

Although those City and Arsenal games look tough on paper, Villa have scored 23 of their 31 goals (tied with Newcastle for second most in the league) at home and are averaging almost four per game (3.83) at Villa Park. They also boast the third-highest non-penalty xG (23) number in the division, so are a very good attacking side.

Morgan Gibbs-White (£5.7m)

Nottingham Forest’s Gibbs-White has one goal and four assists, with the goal and two of the assists coming in the past two games. He is also their first-choice penalty-taker, has a non-penalty xG of 1.74 and an xA of 2.19, has created the most chances (25; nine more than second-placed Luiz) and has the highest xA among the budget midfielders in this article.

Forest have some nice fixtures for point-scoring returns from now until Gameweek 18 as they come up against Everton (H), Fulham (A), Wolves (A), Spurs (H) and Bournemouth (H). However, in Gameweeks 19 and 20, they play Newcastle (A) and Manchester United (H), so Gibbs-White is more of a shorter-term option than some of the others here.

Gibbs-White is one of the first names on the team sheet for Forest head coach Steve Cooper, and they are another club with only the Premier League to concentrate on this month, with no cup commitments until the FA Cup third round in January.

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Cole Palmer (£5.3m)

The 21-year-old has possibly been the bargain of the season — especially for those who picked him up at his early-season price of £4.9million.

Palmer has four goals and three assists, and he has started every league game from Gameweek 7. He is undoubtedly a first-team player at his new club Chelsea and should get plenty of minutes over the next month.

He has a non-penalty xG of 1.75 and an xA of 1.93, but all his goals have come from the penalty spot and it’s unlikely Chelsea will continue to get penalties at the same rate, so he will regress in the goals department. However, that’s not to say he isn’t a worthy option.

Palmer’s underlying numbers are still great and just like the other budget options he is also an enabler for his team-mates. As long as he continues to get minutes he will do well — particularly when you look at the games on his horizon: Brighton (H), Manchester United (A), Everton (A), Sheffield United (H), Wolves (A), Crystal Palace (H), Luton (A) and Fulham (H).

I also wouldn’t be too worried about the return of Christopher Nkunku (£7.3m) (from injury) impacting on Palmer’s minutes just yet. The 26-year-old Frenchman has yet to make his Chelsea debut and it will take time for him to get up to speed. He will be a minutes threat to a number of their attacking players, not just Palmer, as he’s versatile enough to be used in numerous positions. It’s a case of crossing that bridge when we come to it.

Chelsea also play Newcastle in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals in between Gameweeks 17 and 18, which is something to take into consideration.

Suspension tightrope

One aspect you might also want to consider when picking your budget midfielder is possible suspensions for bookings. Players are suspended for one game if they receive five yellow cards inside the first 19 games of the season. Luiz is on four yellow cards and is therefore one away from a one-match ban. Palmer, Gibbs-White and Hwang are on three yellows.

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Ranking the options available…

Underlying stats table

Another factor to take into account is that Hwang and Palmer were not getting consistent starts until Gameweek 7. Therefore, their stats compared to the others won’t be exactly comparable.

Looking at the ‘Minutes per non-pen xGI’ column is useful, as it gives you a better indication of how often the player is involved in attacks when on the pitch.

(Top photo of Hwang Hee-chan: Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)

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